Party On Garth

South Pacific Analysis Small Southeast Pacific Fetch On Monday PM (8/25) the remnants of the weekends storm had re-emerged in the eastern South Pacific and started to develop on the edge of the California swell window. A diffuse area of winds was confirmed at 40-45 kts located at 48S 131W covering a small area and aimed right up the 185-187 degree path to both North and South California. A small area of seas had built to 28 ft centered at 48S 133W. By Tuesday AM (8/26) the fetch had moved further north and east with winds 40-45 kts centered at 41S 120W. But it was taking aim more to the east, or focused 45 degrees east of the 179-181 degree paths to North and South CA. Seas were modeled at 30 ft centered at 42S 124W. In the evening this fetch faded away with residual seas of 28 ft centered at 37S 115W, well outside the North CA swell window but in the South CA swell window. Additional fetch was building off the Ross Ice Shelf with winds confirmed at 40 to near 50 kts over a moderate area centered at 56S 130W and aimed 15 degrees east of the 185-187 degree great circle route to California. On Wednesday AM (8/27) the fetch moved north some with winds still 40 to near 50 kts with a tiny core at 50-60 kts centered at 56S 117W but extending west to 125W. They were aimed 15 degree east of the 180 degree path to North and South CA, with the most energy heading towards South CA. Seas were modeled at 31 ft centered at at 52S 125W. In the evening winds started to cover less area, but the core was still at 40-50 kts solid centered at 53S 116W and aimed 20 degrees east of the 180 degree path to South CA, but outside the North Ca swell window. Seas were modeled at 31 ft centered at 52S 123W and fading fast. On Thursday AM (8/28) the last little bit of energy was still present with winds 40 kts over a tiny area centered in pockets between 50-60S but at 113W, aimed only at Southern CA. Seas of 30 ft were modeled centered at 50S 117W and fading away. This system was right on the edge of the Northern Ca swell window, but well positioned for Southern CA. Winds were generally aimed well up the great circle paths, and though the fetch wasn’t great, it as sure better than nothing. The storm was 4488-5368 nmiles from Northern CA and 4230-5141 nmiles from Southern CA. Expect a decent sized swell with period in the 15-17 secs range, hitting best in Southern CA at those break with good direct south exposure, though even Northern CA should see some rideable energy from this system at the right places. Southern CA: The bulk of the size is expected to arrive Thursday (9/4) at 8 AM with period jumping back up to 17 secs, swell 2.1-2.6 ft @ 17 secs (3.6-4.5 ft faces - Bigger at breaks with swell enhancing bathymetry). Size continuing upwards through the day. Solid size to hold through Friday AM (9/5) as the swell peaks through noon. Swell expected at 3.3-3.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (5.0-5.4 ft faces). Size starting to fade through the evening hours. Some size continuing on Saturday sunrise (9/6) with swell 3.0 ft @ 14 secs (3.6-4.2 ft faces) and slowly dropping as the day continues. Weak 13 sec remnants to be left Sunday AM (9/7) and fading away as the day continues. Swell Direction: 180-187 degrees On Thursday AM (9/4) there were some weak indications of energy at 17-18 secs from 180 degrees starting to show at many of the Southern CA CDIP buoys. By 3 PM definitive signs of this swell were apparent with decoded swell 1.8 ft @ 17 secs from 184 degrees, though inconsistent. Northern CA: The bulk of the size is expected starting that afternoon with swell jumping back up to 2.6 ft @ 17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft) and building some more into Friday AM (9/5) with swell 3.3-3.6 ft @ 16 secs (5.3-5.8 ft faces). Swell to peak by noon and hold through sunset with period at 16 secs. Solid size to continue Saturday AM (9/6) with swell 3.0 ft @ 15 secs (4.0-4.5 ft faces) and slowly dropping as the day continues. Weak 13-14 sec remnants to be left Sunday AM (9/7) with swell 3.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) and fading away as the day continues. Swell Direction: 179-185 degrees