29 second period swell.......

General Discussion
1

 

 

=========== PG&E DCPP Weather Forecast for Tuesday 01/15/13 ==========

 

 

  SEA/SWELL:

 

    Today’s 2- to 4-foot (310-degree deep-water) swell (with an

    8- to 13-second period) will decrease to 2 to 3 feet (with

    a 7- to 15-second period) on Wednesday and will remain at this

    height and period through Friday morning.

 

    A very intense 932-millibar (27.52") storm with hurricane

    force winds developed west of the international date line

    last night and will move north-northeastward towards the

    Aleutian Islands over the next 48 hours.

 

    The most powerful Pacific storm in modern history, at least

    in terms of depth of pressure, was 926 millibars (27.35”) that

    developed near Dutch Harbor on the Aleutian Islands back

    in October of 1977. Winds gusted to 130 mph at Adak, Akaka.

    Super storm Sandy or officially known as Post Tropical Cyclone

    Sandy reached 940 millibars. That was one of the lowest

    barometric readings ever recorded for an Atlantic storm.  

 

    This storm will produce one of the longest period northwesterly

    (295-degree deep-water) swell trains that I’ve ever seen. This

    very-long period swell will arrive along our coastline Friday

    afternoon at 2 to 4 feet (with a 27- to 29-second period).

 

    This swell will gradually build 5 to 7 feet (with a 22- to

    25-second period) Saturday. This northwesterly (295-degree

    deep-water) swell will peak Sunday at 7 to 9 feet (with a

    19- to 21-second period), decreasing next week.

 

  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS:

 

    This morning's low temperature reached 29 degrees at the San

    Luis Obispo County Airport. The record low for this date

    (Jan 15) was 25 degrees set back in 1928. Paso Robles

    dropped to 25 degrees this morning. The low for this date

    was 13-degress set back in 2007.

 

    A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will develop

    over California and will bring warmer weather. 

 

    Today will be the transition day to warmer weather. This

    warming trend will continue into Friday with coastal valley

    and beach locations reaching the mid-70s. Minimum low

    temperatures will go up a bit on Wednesday and then slowly

    rise through the week. Fair weather with warm afternoon's

    and cool morning's will continue through the Martin Luther

    King holiday weekend.

 

    Patchy dense ground fog may develop nights and mornings

    across the North County and coastal valleys later this week

    and over the weekend as the air mass stabilizes.  

 

    The high pressure ridge responsible for this extended period

    of dry weather will hold over the West Coast through early

    next week.   It will probably start to break down or weaken

    by the middle part of next week with a chance for rain

    towards the end of next week and into the following weekend.

 

          Yesterday's          Today's            Tomorrow's      

           Min    Max        Min    Max         Min     Max 

          41.9°   53.7°     44.1°   56.0°      48.0°    59.0°

 

    PG&E Weather Office in San Francisco predicted

    temperatures for San Luis Obispo County.  

 

    Inland Temperatures, Paso Robles

 

      Actual                 Predicted

 

      Mon          Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

     23 49        25 54 25 61 28 66 29 68 30 68 30 67 30 66 31 68  

 

    Coastal Valleys Temperatures, San Luis Obispo

 

      Mon          Tue   Wed   Thu   Fri   Sat   Sun   Mon   Tue

     29 56        29 60 32 69 37 73 40 75 39 74 39 73 38 74 39 75                

 

  WINDS:

 

    A persistent pattern of gentle to moderate (8- to 18-mph)

    northeasterly (Santa Lucias) winds developing during the night

    and morning hours, shifting out of the northwest during the

    afternoon hours will continue through Wednesday.

 

    A pattern of light to gentle (4- to 12-mph) northeasterly

    (Santa Lucias) winds developing during the night and morning

    hours, shifting out of the northwest during the afternoon hours

    will start on Thursday and will continue through Monday.

 

  DIABLO C

 

 

 

Big on North and West shores Hawaii...............

http://www.surfnewsnetwork.com/

2

Oh man - perfect head-high-to-overhead height and long period?? Gonna be GOOD TIMES!

3

Oh man - perfect head-high-to-overhead height and long period?? Gonna be GOOD TIMES!

4

Hmm, long period swells move a lot of water, even if it’s 4’. That is some super long period so expect some large waves… Have a gun dusted and waxed just in case ; )

5

 

yup

 

 

 

6

I was just telling my buddy, when he told me the Maverics contest might be on this sunday, that the scale on this site - http://www.lajollasurf.org/gblpac.html - goes up to 21 seconds on their period graphic, and there is a big white section indicating it’s off the scale…27-29 seconds, even at 2-4’ would make for some pretty unreal sets…  Heck it was 3xoh, at least, when it was 7’@17", and some nice head high sets at 4’@14"  in the recent past.

7

numbers are four counters

a good day is a good day

the greatest day is

the greatest day

until there is

a greater day.

…ambrose…

have a great day

…

every day.

;:{o

and a set wave broke at cojo 

it reeled all the way through,

no one was out ,no one saw it,

it was dark.

o}:;

8

Yeah, what Ambrose said…

9

Long period swells that exceed the 20 second category are rare and unlike any other. If they have any size on them they can go 3x and 4x the called height when they hit the shallows. 

Back when I captained sports fishing boats for a living out of Pillar Point harbor in the 70’s, the fleet got caught out at sea on a massive long duration swell that got so huge it closed out the approach channels, a first according to the old salts who had been fishing out of that port, in some cases for 60 years. 

Wrote a story about it that Surfers Journal published, “Hell of a Big Swell”.  Surfed and lived there for decades, and never saw another swell even come close to half that size.

Mavericks that day was just an inside reef getting covered in enormous walls of whitewater from mountains breaking a half mile further out at sea, waves so big they were tripping on the 10 fathom line, our usual safe haven route while navigating inshore.

Tying up the boat that day was exactly like returning to shore after the biggest day you ever surfed… exhausted, exhilarated, glad you did it, and glad it’s over with…

10

kinda swell that sweeps the unsuspecting off  breakwalls  and beaches etc…

11

LCC I just read that article off the archives recently. Good to know who the people here are.

Back in the 80’s I was a TV News cameraman and I loved shooting the big swells. I went down to Kewalo Basin in Honolulu to shoot a very big south swell. I shot the tourist boats going out and you could hear people screaming and things crashing as the boats punched through close out sets.It looked just like the shots you see on the Deadliest Catch.

When they came back in one of the boats tried to come in on a set and surf the waves through the channel. It ended up pulling to the left and getting dangerously close to being stuck on the reef. The captain threw it into reverse and went right through the takeoff zone of point panic backwards, resulting in one body surfer being sucked through the props. That event pretty much ruined that tour company. An off duty fireman was shooting video there that day and stayed long enough to shoot the whole thing.

In 1978, I was sent out on a 20’ dive boat to try to retreive film shot from a Coast Guard Cutter of the capsized Hokulea. I shot them the day before getting ready to leave and then leaving into very dark dangerous skies. I was a wild and crazy almost 20 years old fool without fear. When we hit the open ocean the waves were amazing, at least 3 times the size they said, and the waves were flying past us even though the boat was pretty damned fast. I asked the guys in the boat how much of the bashing this thing could take and they said they didn’t know, we weren’t supposed to be out in this kind of seas. Once we got about 5 miles out the guy in the boat said if we go down, save all your energy and don’t bother trying to swim to land. That was was a rush just thinking that we were in a dangerous situation. Well we had to go 20 miles out to get to the cutter and a lot of that time we were surfing huge waves often getting the bow close to going under water. It was a trip trying to stay between the cresting top and not pearling at the bottom. I was having the time of my life, totally misunderstanding the seriousness of the situation. When we finally got to the cutter it was crazy, you could then really see how big the waves were. One second you be next to a huge ship and the next it would be totally hidden by a wave. The cutter was rolling from side to side almost touching the water line. Once we got close enough, we realized that there was no way they could get anything to our tiny boat. Worse part was now we had to work out way back in and the seas were hitting us sideways. Wave after wave crashed over us like being in a tube. The tops of the waves would hit the bow and then send a massive wall of water over us and soaking us. Just like driving your car through a rain soaked road hitting the large puddles along the side. That was my first and last time to see the power of the ocean. Truly amazing.

12

  Will it get bigger than that winter day around '82 when the whole cove of PedroPt. (LindaMar) was closing out from point to point, breaking 3 times farther out than normal?

  Looks like; the high might steer it NE, where it focuses into Canada or Washington.

13

 

Model runs point to that scenario. Swell models seem to indicate most of the energy steering to the E and NE. So, it appears the West coast USA will get very long period waves with extremely inconsistent sets and not really huge. I think the further North you are, the bigger it will be.

Meanwhile, swell models for the NE Atlantic show an almost exact opposite scenario for next week. Huge seas, but rather short periods.

 

14

“I was a wild and crazy almost 20 years old fool without fear.”…Sharkcountry

ya, bra, at that age all nutz, not much sense…lol

when we’re surfing, even in the biggest, heaviest conditions, we always think we got a good chance of making it back in…out in the open ocean,  in massive swells and seas, you realize if something goes wrong, it’s just pau…

15

I’d never been 20 miles out and it was a trip when the island started disappearing. I think it was just a couple inches across when we finally caught up to the CG. I just checked on the Pt Panics thing, it was June 1984, and the ship (Pearl Kai 2) was 128 feet long with several hundred people on board. When it went out and punched through the waves, the whole first third of it was in the air. Just amazing what the captain of that ship was doing. Really stupid stuff. I wish I could find the video, but it seems the story has been buried. I might have it in my archives, but I’d have to do some digging.

Roger, I think Sea Wall is the call this weekend. Diamond Head should be catching it too. Maybe even see some long rides at Sandtracks. Too bad for me, I hurt my back Saturday and have been hurting since.

16

Only seen that kind of swell once, the swell was recorded on a buoy at 0.5m@24seconds if I remeber correctly (I have the screenshot somewhere). It was easily 4 meters at the spots that pick up the most swell, far exceeding 3-4x. Lines you couldn’t see the end of, clean and straight as a ruler. 

Looks like Europe may be in for a nice little swell too starting next week, 5-7m@15-17sec when hitting shore.

17

Sharkcountry:

I am Cali. Thought about Mex…but the swell is steep for the places I go…hope to get a wave here in So. Cal. and not sure where to go yet…I guess they are going to have the big wave comp. at Mavericks on Monday…the weather in Cali. is gonna be fine with lite winds…maybe offshore and pretty long lines bending beautifully into thousands of miles of Pacific Coastline…

rogelio

18

19

Kind of swell makes me wish I still had a Ranch boat…Little Drakes at DOH…yowza…

20

Launching your skiff at Gaviota might make a memorable experience.

Everything is gonna depend on the focus of the storm, whether it's still headed NE or does it make a slight turn back to E, so it hits here..

Gonna be some nice waves at OBSF also, especially with a high tide paddle out.

My spot to watch....Goat, just S of the Rock itself.