Well, you said an awful lot in a few paragraphs! Yes, the “science” of surfboard design is, in the end, pretty un-scientific. In the book The Wave by Susan Casey, she describes a seminar of 120 top world scientitsts, the Tenth International Workshop on Wave Hindcasting and Forecasting and Coastal Hazard Symposium. “A wave might seem to be a simple thing”, she says, “but in fact its the most complicated form in nature.” The scientists can’t even agree on what a wave is! Waves, it turns out, are so complex they defy definition. One scientist admitted to the author that despite studying waves for years, they still struggle to understand how they work. Little wonder that the slightly less scientific blokes who ride them, and who make water sleds (surfboards) to ride them, find a whole lot to disagree on also.
I never thought much about the difference in shaping a lightweight short-lived shortboard vs a heavier duty multi season performer with longevity, but it makes sense. I know some people just copy a surfboard when they shape, but seems inevitably the shaper ends up tweaking the details, at which point he is designing, not just copying. To some extent then we’re all working in the dark, because the absolute truths of shaping are not known or probably even knowable.
The most “engineered” surfboard I have ever seen pics or heard of, is the “fat penguin”, developed by fluid flow dynamics engineer Paul Cole after studying everthing from supersonic jets to Spanish mackerel, and crunching data for years in search of a commonality of flow forms. The board is essentially a twinzer, a twin fin with small canard like pre-fins further up, albeit different from the Will Jobson twinzer. And most reports from people who have actually ridden one, are positive. But like the Gemini “picklefork” surfboard, the design is aesthetically too far outside the box, and this has left it open to attacks, ridicule, even charges of “fraud”, by people who have never ridden one or even watched it being ridden. Turns out the surfing world is very peer pressure and fashion conscious oriented. Anyway, its a complex shape and would be difficult and not cost effective to build, so there’s that. Even concepts far less extreme, like asymmetricals and quads, or the duo and the twingle-fin, have met with firm resistance in certain quarters, and apathy and/or skepticism from the general surfing population.
It seems to me the best surfboard builders and designers are gifted at simplifying things, breaking them down into manageable concepts, and paying more attention to old fashioned trial-and-error / feedback than theoretical dogma and rhetorical posturing. There is a sort of General Consensus on what works, and it isn’t wrong, of course. But there is an awful lot of stuff that also works, or works differently, that isn’t included in that General Consensus of generic surfboard design.
Designing and building your own surfboards is very challenging, and very rewarding, for me, although after 10 years and two dozen boards, like you I don’t feel any closer to the ultimate truth of surfboard design.