Both of their thoughts are very similar to a thread running through a recent Surfer Magazine article that included a number of industry “giants”. What wasn’t stated is that this is all a form of business Darwinism; survival of the fittest, with random-unpredictable mutations thrown in the mix. There is nothing any of these people, on their own, or in concert with others are going to be able to do about changes in the industry. The market will sort it out, as it always does. As Grubby and others have said for years; the board “industry” has been living in a well preserved stone age for years…shaped foam cores with laminated plastic shells. We’ve screwed around with length, fins, and colors, but its been pretty much status quo since the 60’s. Over those 40 years, the industry has sorted itself into the big fish, the local fish, and the backyarders (Darwinism at its best). And it has worked ok (some not so ok, some really ok). Enter Suftech, the random mutation. A huge (relatively speaking) leap in technology has hit the established ecosystem like an asteroid in the Cretaceous (uh, death to the dinosaurs). So, over the next 40 years, things will change until a new order is established. Some parts of the ecosystem are going to die unless they adapt. Others will thrive, still others will fill in the holes left by others. Look at other industries hit by similar changes (Computers for instance); if you are big enough, you will have the capital and staying power to survive. If you are small and isolated, you can adapt easier to the changes and you too will probably survive. It’s the middle sized companies that are going to eat it or be swallowed up by the new order. Rusty, Channel Islands, by name recognician alone will make it (Rusty is also a consumate business guy). Surftech, Patagonia will make it too. Dave P. and Skip will survive, as well as a bunch of small local builders. Who’s going to eat it: Stewart, Mitzven, Doc, Lost, and a multitude of longboard-only manufacturers(too much reliance on overseas longboard product). Grubby’s gonna make it too 'cause the backyard guys will be willing to pay twice the dough for blanks and materials to keep their hobby going. And that will be the salvation of surfing’s roots. The Newbalonie Crystal Ball says: Surftech cannot succeed by doing design R&D. They can react to changes forced on them by the buying public. The Greenoughs, Simon Andersons, Lis, etc. are still going to come from the small backyard or local manufacturer. Rusty and Al will make sucessful designs from the competition/pro ranks. Both the backyard and Rusty designs, if sucessful, will be stolen (or bought, hopefully) by the Surftechs to be produced for the masses. Who wins; the grom and Q-tip longboarder who will get a year-old design that will never break. Who loses; the longboard and poptart 6’2"X 18.5" squash thruster clone factories and the $200 custom surfboard. What’s new: Boutique custom shapes by the Fryes, Liddles, Gross, etc. They’ll charge $1K per board, but the people that will appreciate them will pay. Ultimately, its not good or bad, its just different…Oh, and all bets are off if Herb invents a hand moldabel polyfoam-fiber goo that hardens into an indistructable water-tight shape after sitting in the sun for an hour… Newbs
Newbs …Well,done!..and how’d you know?Herb
…Well,done!..and how’d you know?Herb As well written as it gets… The surfer/shaper will survive…
I couldn’t agree more with your thoughts. The market will adjust. I was thinking of this whole pricing thing the other night. Yes board prices have stayed pretty constant, but isn’t that a result of the market itself (the end user) and not backyard and mass producers vs. the master craftsmen? The market segment of surfers in general, is not known to have lots of disposable income. People get what they are willing to pay. How much is a painting worth? It is just paint on some type of material (canvas, wood, glass, etc.), some are worthless and not even worth the material used, and some are priceless (the consumer determines the value and what they can pay). Van Gogh died pennyless, thinking in his mind that he was a total failure. Paintings given to those he owed money to in many cases were thrown away, or in one case, used to mend a lady’s chicken coop. How much is a Mickey Mantle rookie baseball card worth, or a Superman #1 comic? Just some ink on paper? I know the surf industry is big business, but doesn’t a lot of that money come from consumers who don’t really surf (thru clothing sales etc.), or surf once in a while, and not the core market? A core market with not a lot of money? Unfortunately for some, price levels are set by what the market is willing to pay. This is great for mass producers (higher quantities=lower per unit cost=more margin), but bad for the masters. Combine this with the fact that your average board company has very little control over the price of materials! The masters are under paid and under appreciated, and are caught up in a fickle/cut throat industry. It sucks, but isn’t it the nature of the target market and industry?