Prognostications.

Side note… most of the reefs we surf here are dead. Covered by years of silt runoff and sand.
The ancient people built fish ponds at the mouth of every river. Most people say they were for growing fish. I think they were a way to keep the river runoff from going directly into the ocean. The nutrients captured there were also a great way to attract small fish. The community would have to keep the ponds clean and wall strong. It was part of living sustainably, and the Hawaiians did for many centuries.
Western civilization didn’t care to understand what the natives did or why, they thought they had superior intellect. The westerners filled in the ponds and built houses, then they diverted the streams and made canals so the crap coming down the streams could freely enter the ocean. Now we have brown water days, and we are warned to stay out of the water. Pesticides and other crap created a ciguatera problem and our near shore fish are not always eatable.
If I was one of those extremely wealthy people, I’d build a Kelly Slater surf pool and ride that the rest of my life. Only crowd would be the crowd I want. I wouldn’t have to worry about swell direction or size, tide, even wind if I built a covering. I could manage the water quality to be whatever I wanted. This is the future, and we will only see it grow. One day soon there will be wave pools with 10’ waves, with enough of a challenge to make hard core surfers happy.
The current community of surfers seem to be sheep. They create a very dangerous environment for a lot of us. Reminds me of when I would go snow skiing with my brother, seeing so many crazy fools flying down the mountain. Then later in the day you see a ski patrol guiding a stretcher and the person n the stretcher is one of those idiots.
I deal with beginners on long boards sitting at the peak thinking that it’s cool to be a surfer. Other beginners sitting right where you’ll need to go when the set comes in, and they freak out when it does. People frustrated they couldn’t get “enough” waves, so they jump on a longboard, then SUP only thinking about their wave count. Now we see the foilers. I have no idea where this is headed, but everywhere I go I see them. I don’t think the foil is a safe thing to be near. I fear we will see someone getting hit by a foiler while they were under water. You can dive under a skeg, but the foils are a couple feet long. For now many foilers are cool and staying off the pack, but there are some who are right there in the middle of it all.

Shark country, that’s really sad to hear a local explain how Hawaii is truly ‘ paradise lost.’
None of that Environemntal rhetoric makes any difference to market forces, same with common sense.
If the market wants a million hotels, that’s what happens despite the consequences.
If the market wants Super Slicers in the lineup, there they are, no experience necessary.

Progress ? No. But it is definately the future.

We have it all, old islands with dead reefs, and reefs dying from a variety of things including viruses, heat, sunscreen, being constantly stepped on. We also have newly forming land, and an island that will someday break the surface. Sadly many homes are being overrun by lava where people decided to take a chance and live in a known active volcano zone. I think over 70 houses have been destroyed in the last month.
I don’t have a great outlook for my longevity, so I try to enjoy life now. Give a wave, take a wave, as long as we can all get a few that’s good. When only one or two are trying to get it all, not so good.

Aside from the insatiable consumption of energy, there has been resource mismanagement as well as lots of poor decisions for sure Harry.

Watch for the private, constructed reef breaks at popular tropical surf destinations (warm water). You will pay to paddle out. Engineers will design these reefs to create specific wave types – beginner to pro.
In TX, they created a pseudo-pier for surfers at the North end of Padre Island to take pressure off Bob Hall Fishing Pier. Great concept but not well engineered/placed.
There have been a few constructed surf breaks in the past, some failures some successes:
Pratte’s Reef in El Segundo
Narrowneck, Australia
Bournemouth, England
Mount Maunganui, New Zealand
Kovalam, India
I envision the successful reef being constructed from large granite blocks like those used in the TX Freeport Jetties. Eventually, with the right investors, and a skilled team of engineers. Oceanographers and marine scientists, constructed reef breaks will be the equivalent of commercial ski slopes for the tropics. Hopefully, these projects can incorporate coral preservation and restoration as well…