With manouvers like the 540 by Albee Layer , wave pools poking up like weeds, electric boards, hydrofoils and all kinds of amazing advancements, where is surfing going in the near future ?
A 540 isn’t the most rotataions ever but it’s a sign of the athleticism and complexity of technique.
Wave pools aren’t the ocean bu it’s giving a wider spectrum of people access to water, waves and the ability to surf 100 waves a day, every day.
Electric boards are reducing the grunt needed to get to and catch many waves and increases the time spent in the water.
Foils are still in their infancy but are making board design irrelevant and are a totally new way to ride the ocean and combined with the E-board technology could make surfing unrecognisable in the near future.
So where’s all this going ?
What’s the vision in 5 and 15 years time for surfing in the Summer of 2023 and 2033 ??
until the 1180 is pulled off it will be under the radar. To surf 100 waves in a wave pool would cost surfer about $800 of water time. The Jet board miserably failed financially. Foiling learning curve is for the dedicated but opens up non traditional surfing arenas. Fresh water behind boat wake foiling is promising except for expense of a proper boat to make wake and the cost of fuel. Starting price for e-board foils start at 12,000 dollars. I predict my currently 18 year old surftech softtop, which has taught dozens of peeps to surf, will still be getting the job done until I am done.
The classic longboard will still be ridden in 2050 assuming the fin can plow through the floating and suspended plastic refuse.
Actual living reef breaks could be a thing of the past…
It is projected that most of the coral reefs on Earth will be gone in 30 years if the current global climate change trend continues. Our children are likely to witness a mass extinction event of an entire planetary ecosystem.
Since 2015, 50% of the Great Barrier Reef corals have died. Using detailed nautical maps from the 1700s, Yale scientists discovered that over half the coral in the Florida Keys has vanished. Some scientists believe 50% of the reefs present on Earth in the early 20th century are gone now.
Core samples from coral reefs show that the first global-scale bleaching event and die-off occurred in 1998. The second global-scale bleaching and die-off took place in 2010. The 2015-2016 global-scale coral bleaching and die-off was the longest, deadliest and most widespread in history. These events were caused by abnormal increases in ocean temperatures.
A 1-degree C/1.8-degree F rise in ocean temperature can trigger coral bleaching. Bleaching stresses coral. If the temperature increase is not prolonged, the coral might recover.
In 2016, 29% of the Great Barrier Reef died from an increase in ocean temperatures.
A 3.6-degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature above the normal upper limit for coral causes bleaching and death. Documentary time lapse videography of the 2015-2016 coral bleaching/die-off is sobering and ominous.
Estimates indicate 500 million to 1 billion people depend on coral reefs for food and income/resources. Twenty-five percent of all marine life relies on coral reefs.
The future is created by our actions or inactions in the present…
I was thinking that wave pools would become smaller and pop up in suburban areas offering customised wave weeks with Narrabeen, Huntington or Pipeline being featured in stead of just the same wave forever.
People would avoid the ocean due to pollution, crowds,Agro and visit the wave pools day or night.
With battery tech building powerful and tiny batteries they could replace paddling so downwind paddling would see lots more people riding offshore swells. Or even just at the local beachbreak surfers would just slap their E-boards down and not paddle at all but have an advantage over other surfers.
I’m thinking about how technology and social progress or regress will shape surfing. Crowds will always be a problem for a,sport that requires one surfer on each wave, there’s just not enough waves to share and enjoy.
Here’s JOB on a no paddle jet board at Pipeline.
Getting to the beach will become an issue. Coastal trips may need real planning with electric vehicles needing range.
License needed to surf some beaches.
Power assisted systems (making foils more feasible for less proficient / outside reef waves more accessible).
I wrote a story when I was 16 about surfing solar flares and sound waves. Probably not in my lifetime.
Surfing solar flares and sound. Wow , that’s pretty advanced imagination.
Certainly fees and charges will apply to use the beach, probably won’t even be able to go into the water due to toxic levels. In Australia, workers get less money, less hours, more taxes and while it seems we would have more leisure time to surf, if you can’t make enough to house and feed your family, then surfings probably down the list of needs.
The comfortable middle class that populate the water seems to be shrinking.
I may be a stick in the mud, but…As far as the arena goes, wouldn’t really want to take a steady diet of wave pool. Let others have it. I like the trip to the beach. It’s 2.5 hours minimum for me and something that I get excited about when it happens. If I know going in, the swell is iffy, I’ll bring fishing or crabbing gear. If the surf is good, then I’ve had a great ROI on my investment. Maybe this is old man talk, but not having a guarantee every time keeps things interesting.
Well mine and probably a lot of other breaks will be changed, for better or worse, since it seems we just get extreme weather now. I mean at this point I’m just going to keep this house inland and wait until I own oceanfront property, assuming I’m not swimming in plastic by then.
I’m sure wavepool boards will get shorter and stubbier until they’re as skateboard like as possible while still being functional, at which point 540s will be common, and a few people will probably be able to pull off kickflips or shuvits with high consistency, and they won’t use leashes since it’s a pool and the board isn’t going to get sucked into a giant jetty. Won’t even be surprised if they have a pretty quick flip right at the end of the tail to aid in ollie type maneuvers and require more forward foot pressure to keep planing.
And yeah, wave pool boards will be a thing. I’m not an industry person by any means but as wave pools proliferate, the big names will start selling wave pool specific models. Whether or not that will be vastly different than regular boards will depending on marketing. There will probably be the type of board I was describing as well as more traditional stuff.
I’ll say the future is not without risks, but otherwise stay away from the chicken little stuff, climate science, and E-power revolution topics.
Surffoils, I think it’s possible to have good crossover conventional surfing/hydrofoil surfing boards and expect to see them in the future. There are already some out there in shapes and sizes accessible to normal surfers, say 5’2" to 5’8", 30-40L. Not a one board quiver but probably decent in thigh to head high range without foil and with foil, ?knee to ??.
Also, your version with shorter masts may hybridize with the higher AR, “wing” type foils others make to give something useful. Maybe you will be the inventor of that, too.
Wax alternatives will beccome more common if someone bigger ever starts marketing rubber grip like the hex stuff without such a markup.
As said before, a cheap foamie will still offer the most people the most fun on the typical crap waves they find when they do make it out to surf.
I think the wave pools are interesting. The quality of the wave is now as good as many natural breaks. The advantage will be in number of waves per minute. If you can get that up and consistent, you have an edge over the ocean. A long flat spell and you’ll be wanting to try one. A good place to learn and perfect certain moves. I think catching 10 waves at pool like Kelly’s would be enough to make your legs sore.
When we pollute our oceans to the point of not being able to go in the water, these things may be what keeps surfing going. The other thing is there are no sharks and hopefully no alligators to worry about. Probably the only place you can legally tell kooks “you get to surf over there” and they would have to do so.
Topic is surf related “Prognostications” brah.
Pretty sure some of the best surfing breaks in the world are from living coral reefs.
Eliminate living reefs, eliminate those breaks.
Without reefs shielding shorelines from category 4 to 5-plus cyclonic/tropical storms, Shorelines and breaks will change radically.
prog·nos·ti·ca·tion
präɡˌnästəˈkāSHən
noun
the action of foretelling or prophesying future events.
I think anything that makes an activity easier will prosper, even if it’s completely against the current setup.
Foils are an example of a bizarre derivative by the few until Laird. Foiling was there for the taking after Laird but no one grabbed it for years until recently. But the danger factor is killing foilings acceptance.
Same with electric jets on boards, it’s on the fringe of acceptability for the population but hasn’t gone beyond DIY and a few small companies. Weight is an issue too but not a deal breaker.
Once they make a truly Plug and Play E-Board, it’ll take off. It has too many advantages that make surfing easier and more enjoyable.
Things like traction, board construction, accessories will putter along because they’re already in place but it will be innovation that will steer surfings future.
A couple of friends have surfed the Texas wave pool. I do see a limited future in this technology. I could see a dozen of them scattered across the country. The sky isn’t falling and will not fall. Access to the surf will become more and more costly. Airs will be done by a greater percentage of surfers but we’ve pretty much already hit the wall of what is possible. WSL will go bankrupt. Board builders will run out of useful new ideas and boards will become a commodity like snow skis.
stoneburner,
everybody cares about the environment, me included.
there’s a time and a place for everything.
the place for your artificial reef work was its publication.
a bit descriptive but not a bad read and you have my respect for the work reviewed and ideas proposed.
i’m no forum cop but seriously believe the place for surfing and board building discussions is swaylocks.
you will note the thread author and most others have stuck to the subject of surfing practice and gear.
still seems like a good idea to me, cheers
My comments are relevant to the future of surfing.
I did not make statements like these, “Chicken Little/The sky isn’t falling.” Had these statements not been made, my input would have ended with my first post.
In response to challenging opinions/comments, I offered credible sources for substantiation.
Finally, because coral reef extinction is on topic and affects places like Pipeline, Sunset, Teahupoo (et. al.), wave pools/surf machines and “artificial (constructed) reefs” may well have a significant place in the future of surfing – i.e. custom/designer waves. As such, board design and surfing will follow specific function.
Personally, I favor uncrowded oceans and natural waves…
