As you say “fixed” board design has reached something of peak. From 10’ planks to 6’ rockered out thrusters there probably aren’t that many avenues left to explore using conventional thinking. The waves 99% of us surf 99% of the time aren’t going to change, it’s unlikely that as a species we are going to suddenly change very much (physically) and gravity will in likelyhood stay pretty much the same.
However, I think there will be four main areas of development, individually it would be hard to so see any one making a huge difference, but combined?
The first will be incremental improvements in hydrodynamics, fins, rails, etc. Nothing huge but a few percent here and there, and highly tuned kit for specific conditions.
The second will be construction, there are huge range of construction methods and materials out there yet most boards use pretty much the same three materials as forty years ago.
The third will be an improved mathmatical and engineering model of surfboard dynamics (hard) and structures (easy). On the face of it this might not seem like a big deal but you could go along to a shaper/builder and instead of taking years and many boards to find the right combination the shaper will be able model the board on the face of the wave with YOU riding it and get that much closer to perfection (or disaster depending on the skill of the shaper) first time.
The fourth will be adjustable boards. This has already started with the various fin systems, but that’s just the lemon next to pie (I love that quote). In a few years time we’ll be able to tune the rocker, the tail shape, the fins, and maybe even the rails. You’ll turn up at a break with your board and instead of 6’ perfection it’ll be 8’ lump, you’ll pump in a bit more volume, swap out the fins, change from a squash to swallow tail, let out a bit of rocker in the tail add a bit in the nose, and off you go.
Think about it, pretty much every other object we use is studied and engineered to give flexibility in the way we use it, you can change the position of car seats in a hundred different ways, you have more than one radio station. Even similar products such windsurfer sails and yacht masts can be tuned to suite conditions. This will be the big difference, but relies on the rest to mean very much.
All these areas will have to work hand in hand, and the surfer will have to change too. The difference between the kook on his popout with little knowledge of the ocean and his equipment, and the experienced bloke who has taken the time and the effort to understand the waves and his boards will be bigger than ever. Boards will cost more and last longer. Instead of a quick scratch of his head before getting his nipper to copy some young professionals Indo wild thing to suite dad trying to catch a quick one before work the big name shapers will have to provide a service to match the local guy’s. The local guy’s will have access to technologies that enable them to shape the right board for his client whether it’s north coast south coast or whatever.
Time and effort spent developing a relationship between the waves, your board, and your shaper will pay back bigger than ever.
