For those of you who may use the National Data Bouy Center - and/or other bouy info… This is from the forecast today… And to think, I figured if they took the average of the highest third, I figured I may see waves half again as big…
“SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.”
So if it’s 12’@15"… Then can we count on the chance of 24’ waves??? I suppose so. I’d say for sure my theory holds and we’d see 18’ers…
i dont remember where i saw this information but i have heard of the 1 in 1000 rule. for every 1000 waves there will be an anomaly of a larger waves, so lets say on average 5 ft @ 10 sec, every 1000 of those average waves there may one that is 6ft @ 10 seconds and every 1000 6 ft @ 10 sec there may be a 7ft @ 10 sec. i could be wrong though.
To be sure “sets” are also some thing different from swell and wave trains.
What’s intersting to me is the combination of swell period - set/lull time and the height of the waves that come in the sets… I think we all know, the longer the period the bigger the sets. I’ve never totally worked out a formula, as swell direction and bathymetry play a big part too.
I always halve whatever they say on a surf forcast site and get a quite accurate idea of what the waves are going to look like, except it it is a long perioud… At 18sec I can double the wave hight…
regardless of what you read, know or may be told - be ready to scratch for the horizon or get a beat down (2, 3) when you are out in size hunting for more size. Hawaii comes to mind vividly.