Wave hight revisited....

For those of you who may use the National Data Bouy Center - and/or other bouy info…  This is from the forecast today…  And to think, I figured if they took the average of the highest third, I figured I may see waves half again as big…

“SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT…WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.”

So if it’s 12’@15"…  Then can we count on the chance of 24’ waves???  I suppose so.  I’d say for sure my theory holds and we’d see 18’ers…

i dont remember where i saw this information but i have heard of the 1 in 1000 rule. for every 1000 waves there will be an anomaly of a larger waves, so lets say on average 5 ft @ 10 sec, every 1000 of those average waves there may one that is 6ft @ 10 seconds and every 1000 6 ft @ 10 sec there may be a 7ft @ 10 sec. i could be wrong though.

To be sure “sets” are also some thing different from swell and wave trains.

What’s intersting to me is the combination of swell period - set/lull time and the height of the waves that come in the sets…  I think we all know, the longer the period the bigger the sets.  I’ve never totally worked out a formula, as swell direction and bathymetry play a big part too.  

the best formula

for determing the

data from the agency

is the nws kiss of death…

what ever they say will

be undone by the time 

you can get to the beach.

Over and under reporting the wave heights

and predictions of surf to come are rife with

litigious concerns and threat of liability.The high surf advisory

of this last week turned up shoulder high surf …

 

Chicken little surf reports are the rule

not the exception.The surf average heights

are the biggest in history because of the 

accepted scales.sixty foot surf on a jedski

and a 5’10’'… what a news story.

…ambrose…

 

 

Ah yes…

That’s why some say you can learn a lot about life from surfing…  So complicated, so unpredictable, so changing…

Try throwing in our 6’-9’ tides brother ambrose, and it’s even more fun…   Ha!

Read the book "The Wave" by Susan Casey.

Very interesting read on the abnormalities of large waves.

around here the NWS would

call a 6-9’tide a hurricane event

and call out the national guard

…ambrose…

I always halve whatever they say on a surf forcast site and get a quite accurate idea of what the waves are going to look like, except it it is a long perioud… At 18sec I can double the wave hight…

regardless of what you read, know or may be told - be ready to scratch for the horizon or get a beat down (2, 3) when you are out in size hunting for more size. Hawaii comes to mind vividly.